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Retail dollars flowed out of bitcoin ETFs in April, and investors should adopt a cautious stance on the cryptocurrency for now, according to JPMorgan. "The past two weeks saw significant selling/profit taking with perhaps retail investors playing a bigger role than institutional investors," JPMorgan's Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said in a note Thursday. "Indeed, not only have spot bitcoin ETFs seen outflows in April but our proxies of the retail impulse into equities have also downshifted over the past month." Panigirtzoglou noted that in addition to crypto, retail investors also sold equities in April and that the impulse into stocks has also shifted down. "This is shown by … the net flow into equity funds including ETFs and mutual funds, typically used by retail investors … [which] turned negative in April after strong buying in February and March," he said.
Persons: JPMorgan's Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, Panigirtzoglou, cryptocurrencies Organizations: JPMorgan, Metrics, Investors, Federal
With bitcoin finally breaking below that support level at $60k this week, we see much further downside potential before the long-term uptrend resumes. You may also notice the breakdown below an ascending 50-day moving average during the second week in April. Going into May, bitcoin is making lower lows and lower highs, and now sits below a downward-sloping 50-day moving average. BTC.CM= 1Y mountain Bitcoin, 1-year Where could we expect potential support if the downtrend continues? The 200-day moving average is right around there, and big round numbers like $50k and $60k have often served as important thresholds for the cryptocurrency.
Persons: Bitcoin, bitcoin, It's, David Keller Organizations: RSI, CMT
The logo of the cryptocurrency Bitcoin (BTC) can be seen on a coin standing in front of a Bitcoin chart. Bitcoin on Wednesday plunged sharply to its lowest level in over two months amid broader risk-off sentiment in markets, as investors kept an eye on the U.S. Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision. Crypto market participants are eyeing the upcoming interest rate decision from the U.S. Federal Reserve. The Federal Open Market Committee is due to meet on Wednesday afternoon to discuss its latest policy on interest rates. Markets have become more shaky lately, as investors fret over the prospect of a longer path toward interest rate cuts.
Persons: Bitcoin, Jerome Powell, Geoff Kendrick, Kendrick, Changpeng Zhao Organizations: U.S, U.S . Federal, U.S . Federal Reserve Locations: U.S ., CoinGecko, solana, U.S, Hong Kong
The bitcoin sell-off could get worse before it gets better, according to analysts who look only at price charts. The downtrend intensified on Wednesday when it tumbled under the $60,000 level for the first time since February, as stubborn inflation and uncertainty around Federal Reserve interest rate policy kept markets under pressure. That was a key support level for bitcoin, representing the approximate convergence of the March low and 100-day moving average, according to Ari Wald, an analyst at Oppenheimer. Wolfe Research's Rob Ginsberg said $60,000 bitcoin looks "vulnerable" and that $50,000 could be in play. Bitcoin traded between $60,000 and $74,000 since mid-March, when the cryptocurrency reached new records and has failed multiple times to break out.
Persons: Ari Wald, Oppenheimer, It's, bitcoin, David Keller, Wald, Keller, Geoff Kendrick, Wolfe, Rob Ginsberg, Bitcoin, , Michael Bloom, Rob Ginsberg's Organizations: CNBC Locations: U.S
Bank of America reiterates Tesla as buy Bank of America said it's standing by its buy rating on the electric-vehicle maker. "We maintain our Buy rating and raise our PT from $1100 to $1,150." "We are initiating coverage of Live Nation with a Buy rating and $120 price target." "We are initiating coverage on EE with an Overweight rating." "We are initiating coverage of Integral Ad Science with a Buy rating and a $15 price target."
Persons: Tesla, TSLA, Morgan Stanley, Oppenheimer, Raymond James, Mizuho, Airbnb, Coinbase, Needham, Stephens, Jefferies, Ralph Lauren, Chegg Organizations: Argus, Boeing, " Bank of America, Bank of America, UBS, Nvidia, Dyne, JPMorgan, Catalyst Watch, Apple, Mizuho, Citi, BTC, Ethereum, Paramount, CBS, Deutsche Bank, Deutsche, Excelerate Energy, Stephens, Barclays, UMB, Corp, Contineum Locations: Base, Kansas City
Bitcoin's seven-month rally is on pause heading into May, now that two key catalysts investors had been closely watching this year – the bitcoin ETFs and the halving – are now behind them. The flagship cryptocurrency has fallen nearly 14% in April, according to Coin Metrics, and is on pace to post its first negative month in eight, and its worst month since November 2022, when FTX collapsed. However, it's proved to be a winning month in the previous halving years of 2012, 2016 and 2020. On Tuesday, Hong Kong bitcoin ETFs began trading. "Whether it's the next month or two months, you'll start to see more wealth management firms approve the ETF on their platforms.
Persons: FTX, It's, bitcoin, Antoni Trenchev, Trenchev, it's, Lyn Alden, Swan, Jerome Powell, there's, Alden, Devin Ryan, you'll Organizations: Metrics, Lyn, Lyn Alden Investment, Federal Reserve, JMP Securities Locations: bitcoin, U.S, Hong Kong, Australia, Japan, Singapore, South Korea
"Bitcoin continues to demonstrate its inability to successfully get through that stubborn $70k resistance level," Wolfe's Rob Ginsberg said in a note Wednesday. "It reminds us of another group that has been unable to overcome its own resistance level ... small caps," he continued. Now, bitcoin has retested its highs while small caps have barely proved they can stay above $2,000 in [the Russell 2000 ]." BTC.CM= .RUT 6M mountain Bitcoin and Russell 2000 Bitcoin has been meandering in the $60,000 level since the beginning of March. All of the major stock indexes are down for the month, and the small-cap Russell 2000 is tracking for a deeper loss of about 6%.
Persons: Bitcoin, Rob Ginsberg, bitcoin, Russell, Ginsberg, Michael Bloom Organizations: Wolfe Research, Federal Reserve
Bitcoin is set for more price gains later this year, even after a recent retreat in prices, according to Standard Chartered's top crypto analyst. Geoffrey Kendrick, head of foreign exchange research, West, and digital assets research at Standard Chartered, said in a research note this week that he sees bitcoin rising to $150,000 per coin, and ether hitting $8,000 by the end of 2024 — doubling down on a bullish prediction from the bank earlier this year. Bitcoin temporarily sank below $60,000 last week as traders reacted to news of an escalating military conflict between Iran and Israel. Also, large long liquidations over the past couple of weeks mean that market positioning is a lot cleaner," Kendrick said. "As a result, with Middle East tensions easing I think it is time to re-engage in medium-term longs."
Persons: Geoffrey Kendrick, Kendrick, Bitcoin, bitcoin, That's Organizations: Standard Chartered, BTC, ETH, Securities and Exchange Commission, Treasury, HK Locations: Israel, Iran, United States, U.S
watch nowThe Bitcoin network on Friday evening completed its fourth "halving," reducing the rewards earned by miners to 3.125 bitcoins from 6.25. After the 2012, 2016 and 2020 halvings, the bitcoin price ran up about 93x, 30x and 8x, respectively, from its halving day price to its cycle top. Hash rates are a measure of the computational power used to process transactions on the bitcoin network. "The market so far has seen bitcoin mining stocks as mere BTC proxies, in absence of bitcoin ETFs," said Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani. "[The] Bitcoin halving is already partially priced in by the market and we do not expect prices to increase significantly following the halving event," the firm's Marion Laboure said in a note Thursday, adding that it "has been widely anticipated in advance due to the nature of the Bitcoin algorithm."
Persons: Reginald Smith, Bernstein, Gautam Chhugani, MARA, Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, Marion Laboure Organizations: Metrics, JPMorgan, BTC, IRIS, Deutsche Bank Locations: Friday's
Citi says it may be too early to classify bitcoin as "digital gold" despite its safe haven properties and recent correlation with the yellow metal. Many bitcoin fans regard the cryptocurrency as a digital version of gold because of its finite supply and its function as a store of value. Citi analyst Alex Saunders acknowledged that it can and has displayed both safe haven and risk asset behaviors, but said the digital gold analogy isn't yet warranted. Bitcoin does not yet exhibit the 'store-of-value' properties of gold, despite both being limited-supply, zero-coupon-bearing instruments." "Adoption of the emergent blockchain technology will be key to the long-term utility of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies," he added.
Persons: Alex Saunders, , Saunders, bitcoin, Michael Bloom Organizations: Citi Locations: East
Bitcoin 's gold-like ability to resist any form of seizure makes it a valuable asset for the long term, according to BCA Research, which calls for the world's largest cryptocurrency to eventually rally to more than $100,000. "The bitcoin price will rise well into the $100,000s as the market value for non-confiscatability grows substantially and bitcoin's share of this market grows substantially," Montreal-based BCA Research said. BTC.CM= YTD mountain Bitcoin Bitcoin hit a new all-time high above $73,000 on March 14, rising more than 70% this year. The introduction of U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs this year and the tightening bitcoin supply ahead of the late April " halving " have driven the price of the cryptocurrency up. "The sharp recent rallies in both gold and bitcoin reflect that the market has suddenly upped the value of non-confiscatability," BCA said.
Persons: Bitcoin, Dhaval Joshi, Joshi, bitcoin, Bullion, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: BCA Research, Research, BCA Locations: Montreal
Stock Chart Icon Stock chart icon Bitcoin (BTC), entering its fourth halving period next week. After the 2012, 2016 and 2020 halvings, the bitcoin price ran up about 93x, 30x and 8x, respectively, from its halving day price to its cycle top. The halving occurs when incentives for bitcoin miners are cut by half, as mandated by the code of the Bitcoin blockchain. Zoom In Icon Arrows pointing outwardsThat $30 million assumes a bitcoin price of about $70,000. Diminishing returns from halving to halving Bitcoin has always shot to the moon in the months following its halving – that's what makes it such a celebrated day among enthusiasts.
Persons: Yu Chun Christopher Wong, bitcoin, Antoni Trenchev, it's, Steven Lubka, Swan Bitcoin, Trenchev, Swan's Lubka, Lubka Organizations: S3studio, Wall, Swan, Miners
Some bitcoin miners won't survive when the upcoming halving slashes their revenue in half, but the ones that do survive will thrive, and Rosenblatt Securities says TeraWulf is its top pick in the category. The firm initiated coverage of the bitcoin miner with a buy rating and $4.20 price target Tuesday. Mining stocks like TeraWulf offer amplified exposure to the bitcoin price, with enhanced returns during bull cycles but increased volatility in bear markets. TeraWulf's estimated cost to mine a bitcoin this year is about $25,000 ahead of the halving and $37,000 after. Miners have been hard at work to enhance their fleet efficiency and lower their operating costs — largely power costs.
Persons: WULF, Rosenblatt, Andrew Bond, Bond, Bitcoin, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Rosenblatt Securities, Metrics Locations: Maryland, U.S
"Bitcoin & Nasdaq 100 reflect the speculative fever fostered by cheap money after dovish Fed pivots, such as occurred 4Q 2023," Bannister said. Shortly after, on March 28, the S & P 500 reached a new intraday all-time high . .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500, YTD If was indeed its peak, that could mean a weaker Nasdaq 100 for six months, Bannister said. Additionally the S & P 500, which is cap weighted, could struggle against the equal-weight S & P 500 for about six months. "When the equal-weighted S & P 500 out-performs the S & P 500, then value tends to out-perform growth," he said.
Persons: Barry Bannister, Bannister, Bitcoin, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Big Tech, Nasdaq, Big Tech Nasdaq
Hedge fund billionaire and New York Mets owner Steve Cohen said he owns "very little" bitcoin, though he didn't specify its value. "My son is really into it, and he had me play around and try to figure out how to transact on Coinbase," Cohen told CNBC's "Squawk Box" on Wednesday. Still, he appears to be following along with investors across the world who have been trying to understand how to value bitcoin and whether it belongs in a portfolio. BTC.CM= 1Y mountain Bitcoin (BTC) over the past year Cohen also made the point that bitcoin represents just a slice of the broader market of cryptocurrencies and the opportunities for their underlying blockchain technology. "Bitcoin is separate from crypto ... ultimately, it's about use case – will crypto develop use cases?"
Persons: Steve Cohen, Cohen, CNBC's, it's, There's Organizations: New York Mets, Point72 Asset Management, Point72 Ventures, SEC Locations: cryptocurrencies
The most important driver in second quarter for bitcoin and crypto, however, could be the Federal Reserve decision on interest rate cuts. Traders are now pricing in a roughly 61% chance of a first Fed rate cut taking place in June, according to the CME FedWatch Tool . Demand has increased from 40,000 bitcoin at the start of the year to 213,000 bitcoin currently, largely driven by ETF buying ahead of the late April Bitcoin halving, according to CryptoQuant. However, the SEC's decision on whether or not to allow spot ether ETFs to trade, due in May, will "very likely" be market moving, he added. "If it's not priced in today, then it very likely will be a market moving event if it happens," he said.
Persons: Bitcoin, Zach Pandl, Pandl, , bitcoin, Julio Moreno, Chris Kuiper, — CNBC's Ganesh Rao Organizations: Securities and Exchange Commission, Federal, Metrics, Fidelity Digital Assets, CNBC, Fidelity, SEC Locations: U.S, BlackRock
Gold has a chance to charge ahead of bitcoin as the flagship cryptocurrency hovers around the $70,000 level, according to Wolfe Research. However, bitcoin has also been mirroring its own moves from 2021, when the cryptocurrency rocketed twice to all-time highs, just before a deep pullback. "The gold vs. bitcoin ratio is nearing support while oversold on a weekly basis," said Ginsberg. "If our feeling on bitcoin is correct, and it continues to consolidate in this $60,000–$73,000 region, it may provide a good opportunity for gold to start outperforming." It has since returned to its highs and looks ready to reaccelerate, Ginsberg said, although selling pressure "has historically come on strong above $70,000."
Persons: bitcoin, Rob Ginsberg, Ginsberg Organizations: Wolfe Research Locations: bitcoin, U.S
If you're looking for your bitcoin to go to the moon, the window of opportunity may be slowly closing, according to BlackRock. "Certainly, returns going forward will come down," he said at the Bitcoin Investor Day conference in New York City Friday. That demand was "massive and clear" in 2023, when BlackRock filed to launch its iShares Bitcoin Trust. "I don't think we've seen the end of cycles in bitcoin," Mitchnick said. "[With] bitcoin, when the price goes up, the probabilities of success and adoption in some senses, as digital gold, are also changing," he said.
Persons: Robert Mitchnick, It's, , Mitchnick, CNBC's Ganesh Rao Organizations: BlackRock Locations: BlackRock, New York, @GC
Bitcoin is more like digital gold than a so-called "risk-on" asset, according to Robert Mitchnick, BlackRock's digital assets lead. For years, bitcoin's ability to behave in different ways at different times has stumped investors . "Historically bitcoin's long-term average correlation [to stocks] has been close to zero – slightly positive, but close to zero," he said. While the recent rally was spurred by the launch of U.S. bitcoin ETFs, some on Wall Street have suggested that it may have recently fused into the more macroeconomic-fueled gold rally . Risk and portfolio construction That, understandably, adds confusion for newcomers to bitcoin investing, who are drawn to its digital gold-like qualities.
Persons: Robert Mitchnick, BlackRock's, bitcoin, It's, Bitcoin, bitcoin rocketed, Mitchnick Organizations: New York City, Fed, BlackRock Locations: New York
Like tech stocks, bitcoin sometimes benefits from low interest rates and improved market liquidity, which can lead to better sentiment and greater investment in growth assets. Stock Chart Icon Stock chart icon Bitcoin turns higher after two days of losses"There has been an inverse relationship between rates and bitcoin price," said Oppenheimer executive director Owen Lau. "When the Fed increased interest rates in 2022, it took out liquidity from the market, which impacted bitcoin and tech stocks. When the Fed cuts rates, it provides liquidity to the market, which should benefit risky assets such as bitcoin. The Dow Jones Industrial Average , S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite all closed at record highs after the Fed meeting wrapped up.
Persons: Bitcoin, cryptocurrency, Cryptocurrencies, Oppenheimer, Owen Lau, It's, Ether, Solana, dogecoin, MicroStrategy, CleanSpark, bitcoin, We've, Vijay Ayyar Organizations: Getty, Metrics, Federal, Polygon's, Iris Energy, Marathon, JPMorgan, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, CNBC
Grayscale CEO Michael Sonnenshein said that the crypto fund manager expects to bring fees on its Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF down in the coming months, as the nascent crypto ETF market matures. The FTX bankruptcy estate reportedly offloaded the majority of its shares in Grayscale's bitcoin ETF, according to January reporting from Bloomberg and CoinDesk. Grayscale also wants to introduce other ways of giving investors less costly ways of accessing its bitcoin ETF, including a "mini" version of its flagship product — the Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust, announced last week. The new BTC ETF would be effectively spun out of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF and seeded with an as-yet undisclosed portion of bitcoin underlying GBTC shares. The firm is currently awaiting approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for its Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF.
Persons: Michael Sonnenshein, Sonnenshein, GBTC, FTX Organizations: NYSE, LONDON, CNBC, Bloomberg, BlackRock, Fidelity, Vanguard, Trust, BTC, U.S . Securities, Exchange Commission, SEC Locations: Grayscale's bitcoin, solana
The excitement around the arrival of bitcoin ETFs and the subsequent surge to new highs for the cryptocurrency is making even bitcoin bulls raise their expectations. "We raise our long-held price estimate to the USD 150,000 level from USD 100,000 given the more rapid pass-through from ETF inflows to the BTC price to date," the note said. The new bitcoin ETFs have pulled in billions of dollars from investors since their January launch, even with the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust seeing heavy outflows. The iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has raked in more than $12 billion on its own, according to FactSet. The quick growth of the bitcoin ETFs has boosted confidence that there are more investors interested in crypto who have been reluctant to buy it through crypto exchanges.
Persons: Geoff Kendrick, Kendrick Organizations: BTC, Metrics, bitcoin Locations: Bitcoin
Whether you're a longtime crypto investor or recently purchased digital assets, here are some key things to know from crypto tax experts. For 2023, there's a "digital assets" question on the front page of Form 1040, along with returns for estates and trusts, partnerships, corporations and S corporations. Andrew Gordon President of Gordon Law Group"Yes-or-no questions are quite powerful," said Andrew Gordon, tax attorney, certified public accountant and president of Gordon Law Group. However, the 2023 digital assets question does not apply to bitcoin futures ETFs or spot bitcoin ETFs, he said. How crypto tax reporting works
Persons: Cryptocurrency, Matt Metras, Andrew Gordon President, Andrew Gordon, Gordon, They're Organizations: IRS, MDM Financial, Gordon Law, Gordon Law Group
Michael Saylor, chairman and CEO of MicroStrategy, speaks during the Bitcoin 2022 conference in Miami on April 7, 2022. Saylor told CNBC's "Squawk Box" on Monday that bitcoin is going to "eat gold." "The price of bitcoin is going to have to adjust up in order to meet that investor demand," Saylor said. MicroStrategy said in the release that it "used the net proceeds from the sale of the notes to acquire additional bitcoin." As of Monday, Canaccord's analysis showed that MicroStrategy's equity value premium over its bitcoin holdings was 86%.
Persons: Michael Saylor, Saylor, CNBC's, bitcoin, MicroStrategy, Canaccord, MicroStategy Organizations: MicroStrategy, BTC, CNBC Locations: Miami, bitcoin
Relative to bitcoin , the initial price action following the upgrade is even weaker historically, with ether underperforming 80% of the time in the first 20 days, Saunders added. Saunders warned, however, that the trading environment for crypto is different today than it was during previous Ethereum network upgrades. The scalability problem Dencun follows the "Shapella" upgrade from almost a year ago, which allowed investors to withdraw their staked ether from the network for the first time. This upgrade is focused on the longer-term goal of enhancing Ethereum's ability to handle more activity and transactions as the network grows. "The Dencun upgrade serves as an important step in addressing this congestion, which hurts users and developers alike."
Persons: Alex Saunders, Saunders, Philipp Zentner, bitcoin –, Duncan Ash, Michael Bloom Organizations: BTC, Citi, ETH, Metrics, Securities and Exchange Commission Locations: U.S
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